In today’s briefing:
- Global Lithium (GL1 AU): Titan’s Binding Scheme, an Uncertain MinRes Vote
- IDP Education (IEL AU): Blackstone’s Offer Rejection Justified, Third Approach Likely
- SSI Weekly Update: Buyout Proposals, Divestitures, and Acquisition Developments in Focus
- Dyno Nobel Blasting Into Defence Earnings
- Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU): Updates Post The FY26 Result
- IDP Education (IEL AU): Blackstone’s Cheeky Offers As Pricing Touch A Decade-Plus Low
Global Lithium (GL1 AU): Titan’s Binding Scheme, an Uncertain MinRes Vote
- Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Titan at A$1.15 per share, a 72.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
- Regulatory approvals (FIRB, ACCC) are low-risk. Barring Mineral Resources (MIN AU), there is little doubt that the remaining substantial shareholders will be supportive.
- While MinRes will crystallise a material loss at the offer price, it is unlikely to interfere, as it recently stated that it does not want further exposure to lithium.
IDP Education (IEL AU): Blackstone’s Offer Rejection Justified, Third Approach Likely
- In response to an AFR article, IDP Education (IEL AU) disclosed that it rejected a non-binding proposal from Blackstone (BX US) at A$2.50 (received on 9 September).
- The offer is light on several metrics. Based on its weighted-average purchase price, Southeastern (which has quickly grown to be the largest shareholder) would need a A$3.00+ offer.
- Several factors suggest that Blackstone is likely to return with at least a third offer. An offer of at least A$3.00 is required to pressure the Board to engage.
SSI Weekly Update: Buyout Proposals, Divestitures, and Acquisition Developments in Focus
- Ingenia Communities received a takeover proposal from Warburg Pincus at A$5.05/share, increasing market-implied odds of success to 40%-45%.
- Medtronic plans a split-off exchange offer for its diabetes business, with a 7.53% premium and priority for odd-lot holders.
- Priority Technology Holdings’ spread narrowed to 3-5% amid ongoing special committee review and activist push for a higher offer.
Dyno Nobel Blasting Into Defence Earnings
- The strategic repositioning of Dyno Nobel ((DNL)) is the key takeaway from last week’s Investor Day, titled “Beyond FY28 $600m EBIT Ambition”.
- Management signalled its longer-term growth ambitions for the explosives company, laying out not only an upgraded FY28 EBIT target, but also an FY31 EBIT goal of $800m, compared to FY26 EBIT of between $480m-$490m.
- The market was happy to cheer the update, sending the share price up almost 8%, which is impressive given the rally off the late March low of some $2.88 to currently around $4.10.
Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU): Updates Post The FY26 Result
- FY26 delivered the promised step change: shipments rose 83% to 4.4Mt, revenue rose 87% to A$590m, with C1 held at A$73.7/wmt amid peer double-digit inflation.
- Beebyn Hub transition is on schedule, with the owner-operated crusher due in Q2 FY27 and FY27 guidance of 4.7Mt to 5.3Mt reaffirmed.
- FY26 prints 15.0x earnings, 2.9x EV/EBITDA and 3.9% yield, stepping to 9.4x and 1.9x on 06/27e.
IDP Education (IEL AU): Blackstone’s Cheeky Offers As Pricing Touch A Decade-Plus Low
- Since its share price peaked in 4Q21, IDP Education (IEL AU), a multinational education services outfit, has fallen ~95%.
- IDP has faced pressure from immigration/student visa caps and competing English language tests for students and immigrants. Plus, IDP has never recovered from Covid.
- That share price decline was not lost on Blackstone, which has tabled two NBIOs (the last at A$2.50/share), both of which have been rightfully rejected. Definitely scope for a re-bid.
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