In today’s briefing:
- Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)’s Terms
- Magellan Financial (MFG AU) Vs Credit Corp (CCP AU): Proven but Risky Pair Signals Again
- Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals
- BHP: Risk In A Time Of Heroic Copper Assumptions
- Auric Mining Limited – Wheeling and dealing that drives value
- National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (27 Sep 2026)
- RBA Decision on 29 September: History Suggests Bank Underperformance
Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)’s Terms
- Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
- NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
- NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.
Magellan Financial (MFG AU) Vs Credit Corp (CCP AU): Proven but Risky Pair Signals Again
- Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlight: Going long Magellan Financial (MFG AU) and short Credit Corp (CCP AU) targets a 13% return.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals
- Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.
- The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into “Diversified Metals”; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of “Industrial REITs“. Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.
- Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: NAB (NAB AU), Codan (CDA AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), Minerals 260 (MI6 AU), andbSunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU).
BHP: Risk In A Time Of Heroic Copper Assumptions
- The copper price has stagnated for four months, struggling to maintain new highs, and recently slumped on reports that the U.S. maybe wavering on implementing more tariffs of the metal
- BHP’s price implies very aggressive copper price targets which we view as insufficiently incorporating the risks of a weakening AI-boom, low to no additional US tariffs and broader economic cyclicality
- There is still significant downside not just to our valuation, which sits at a pre-AI-boom-inventory-imbalance-driven-parabolic-copper-surge level, but even to a moderate midpoint between our conservative outlook and the market price
Auric Mining Limited – Wheeling and dealing that drives value
- Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold producer and developer that owns a portfolio of gold assets around the Kalgoorlie and Norseman regions of Western Australia (WA).
- It has made two key acquisitions in the Union Jack project (adds ounce) and purchased second-hand processing equipment and infrastructure (locks in costs and timelines).
- Following the acquisitions, AWJ has proforma net cash of ~$30m as of September 2026, which we think continues to support further exploration, tolling opportunities, asset acquisitions, and still potentially provide a material contribution towards funding Burbanks.
National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (27 Sep 2026)
- The $1.35 billion pre-tax software capitalization write-down in 1H26 is a strategic “kitchen-sinking” exercise disguised as an AI-driven policy change. While management attributes it to AI making software redundant faster, the primary driver is a balance sheet clean-up by the new executive team to lower the capitalization threshold from $5 million to $20 million, bringing NAB in line with peer practices and resetting the run-rate cost base.
- The formal cancellation of AUSTRAC’s Enforceable Undertaking on July 25, 2025, marks a massive regulatory milestone, but run-rate compliance costs will remain elevated. The implementation of the AML/CTF Amendment Act 2024 (phasing in during 2026) shifts the monitoring burden to the banks to oversee “Tranche 2” professional services clients, offsetting any projected cost savings from the EU exit.
- The APRA Additional Tier 1 (AT1) phase-out commencing January 1, 2027, will require NAB to replace 1.5% of its capital structure with 0.25% CET1 and 1.25% Tier 2. With $9.0 billion in outstanding hybrids as of January 2026, the transition will create a minor funding cost benefit but will act as a structural drag on Return on Equity (ROE) due to the higher Common Equity Tier 1 requirements.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
RBA Decision on 29 September: History Suggests Bank Underperformance
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
- Inflation remains well above the RBA’s target band. Markets expect a hike at this meeting and further increases through mid-2027.
- Australian equities have historically shown little unusual movement after anticipated hikes, while banks have tended to underperform the broader market.
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