Earnings Alerts

Analyzing NIO (NIO) Earnings: 4Q Revenue Forecast Misses and Third Quarter Results Highlights

By November 25, 2025 No Comments
  • NIO’s fourth quarter revenue forecast ranges from 32.76 billion yuan to 34.04 billion yuan, below the estimated 34.73 billion yuan.
  • Expected deliveries for the fourth quarter are between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles, short of the projected 134,979 vehicles.
  • For the third quarter, NIO reported a revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, but this was below the 22.28 billion yuan estimate.
  • The adjusted loss per American depositary receipt was 1.14 yuan, smaller than the forecasted loss of 1.57 yuan per share.
  • Gross margin improved to 13.9% from 10.7% year-over-year, exceeding the projected 11.4%.
  • NIO delivered 87,071 vehicles in the third quarter, a 41% year-over-year increase, narrowly missing the estimate of 89,171 vehicles.
  • Vehicle sales totaled 19.20 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-over-year, slightly below the 19.65 billion yuan estimate.
  • The vehicle margin rose to 14.7% from 13.1% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 12.9%.
  • Adjusted operating loss reduced to 2.78 billion yuan from a 4.59 billion yuan loss year-over-year.
  • Total operating expenses decreased by 9.6% year-over-year to 6.55 billion yuan, slightly above the 6.41 billion yuan estimate.
  • The adjusted net loss narrowed to 2.74 billion yuan from 4.41 billion yuan year-over-year.
  • William Bin Li, NIO’s CEO, attributed the strong momentum to the competitiveness of their brands and operational efficiency improvements.
  • NIO reported an over 30% reduction in non-GAAP operating losses quarter-on-quarter.
  • Analyst ratings for NIO include 18 buys, 13 holds, and 1 sell.

NIO on Smartkarma



Analyst coverage of NIO on Smartkarma reveals varying sentiments towards the company. In a report titled “Primer: NIO (NIO US) – Sep 2025″ by αSK, it is highlighted that NIO stands out in China’s premium electric vehicle market due to its strong brand and innovative Battery-as-a-Service model. However, the company faces challenges such as intense competition, ongoing losses, and the need for continuous fundraising. Success for NIO hinges on effectively executing strategies to enhance gross margins and achieve profitability, goals that have been missed previously.

Contrastingly, in the report “NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise” by Arun George, the sentiment is more cautious. While NIO aims to reach break-even in the fourth quarter of 2025 and reduce cash burn, concerns are raised about the company’s stretched valuation, history of false promises, and increasing competition. The equity offering of approximately US$1 billion by NIO is viewed as seizing the opportunity presented by a significant share price increase, yet the report advises vigilance in light of these uncertainties.



A look at NIO Smart Scores

FactorScoreMagnitude
Value2
Dividend1
Growth3
Resilience2
Momentum5
OVERALL SMART SCORE2.6

Smart Score is a compound score for the Company indicating its overall outlook. It is derived by taking an equally weighted average of underlying Factor scores computed by Smartkarma

According to Smartkarma’s Smart Scores, NIO, a company that manufactures and sells electric vehicles, has received a mixed outlook. While it shows strong momentum with a score of 5, indicating positive market sentiment, it lags in areas such as value and dividend with scores of 2 and 1 respectively. This suggests that investors may need to consider factors beyond traditional financial metrics when evaluating NIO’s long-term prospects.

NIO’s growth score of 3 indicates potential for expansion, but its resilience score of 2 raises questions about its ability to weather economic downturns. Overall, while NIO’s high momentum score implies current bullishness, investors should assess the company’s underlying fundamentals to make informed decisions about its future performance.


Disclaimer: This article by Smartkarma is general in nature and based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that our articles may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation, Smartkarma makes no assurance about the accuracy of any generated data or content. All content is indicative only and should be independently checked for accuracy and confirmed before use. Smartkarma accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage caused as a result of any inaccuracy or error within the Lab online tools or generated data.
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