- 1Q Revenue Forecast: Match Group expects revenue between $820 million and $830 million, falling short of the $852.7 million estimate.
- 1Q Adjusted Operating Income: Estimated between $260 million and $265 million, below the $299.2 million estimate.
- 1Q Adjusted Operating Margin: Projected at 32%.
- Yearly Revenue Forecast: Expected between $3.38 billion and $3.50 billion, slightly under the $3.52 billion estimate.
- Yearly Adjusted Operating Margin: Anticipated at least 36.5%, surpassing the 24.9% estimate.
- Revenue Growth Outlook: Projected between -3% to +1%.
- Free Cash Flow Forecast for the Year: Between $1.00 billion and $1.03 billion.
- Capital Expenditure Forecast for the Year: Between $45 million and $55 million.
- 4Q Earnings Per Share: Reported at 59 cents.
- 4Q Revenue Results: Revenue was $860.2 million, slightly above the $859.2 million estimate.
- 4Q Total Direct Revenue: $845 million, a 0.7% year-over-year decline, meeting the $844.6 million estimate.
- Tinder Performance: Direct revenue was $476 million, a 3.5% year-over-year decrease, aligning with the $476.9 million estimate, while payers totaled 9.5 million, slightly below the 9.53 million estimate.
- Hinge Performance: Direct revenue increased by 27% year-over-year to $148 million, exceeding the $144.7 million estimate, with payers at 1.6 million, just under the 1.62 million estimate.
- Evergreen & Emerging Revenue: Direct revenue was $155 million, a 7.7% year-over-year decline, in line with the $155.1 million estimate.
- Strength of the US Dollar: Continues to exert pressure, impacting financial results.
- 2025 Outlook: Remains unchanged on a foreign exchange neutral basis.
- Stock Movement: Shares fell 8% after 1Q revenue forecast missed estimates, closing at $33.50 in post-market trading with 46,498 shares traded.
- 2025 Stock-based Compensation: Expected between $305 million and $315 million.
- 2025 Effective Income Tax Rate: Predicted to be “in the low 20%s.”
- Reduction of Shares Outstanding: Company projects a 5% to 7% reduction over the course of 2025.
- 2025 Adjusted Operating Income Forecast: Between $1,232 million and $1,278 million.
- 2025 Free Cash Flow Allocation: At least 75% of FCF to be used for share buybacks, with a target of returning at least 100% of FCF to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
- Analyst Recommendations: 11 buys, 15 holds, and 0 sells.
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Match Group on Smartkarma
Analyst coverage of Match Group on Smartkarma reveals a mixed outlook for the leading online dating company. Baptista Research‘s analysis titled “Match Group Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Product Innovation & Ecosystem Health & Other Major Drivers” highlights both opportunities and challenges in the company’s third-quarter financial performance. Notably, strong momentum is seen with Hinge, showing impressive user growth and revenue achievements. Hinge reported a 36% year-over-year increase in direct revenue, indicating positive traction in user engagement and monetization.
Additionally, Value Investors Club‘s perspective on “Match Group Inc (MTCH) – Monday, Jul 15, 2024″ presents a bullish stance, considering Match as undervalued with a compelling value opportunity. Despite recent stock price declines, the report emphasizes Match’s strong revenue and cash flow growth potential, backed by core assets like Tinder. With a leading competitive position and robust free cash flow generation, Match is positioned for significant returns in the coming years, supported by subscription offerings and strategic initiatives for growth.
A look at Match Group Smart Scores
| Factor | Score | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 | |
| Dividend | 2 | |
| Growth | 3 | |
| Resilience | 5 | |
| Momentum | 3 | |
| OVERALL SMART SCORE | 2.6 |
Smart Score is a compound score for the Company indicating its overall outlook. It is derived by taking an equally weighted average of underlying Factor scores computed by Smartkarma
Match Group, Inc., known for its diverse dating services, has been assigned Smartkarma Smart Scores across various factors. With a high Resilience score of 5, the company demonstrates strong adaptability to market challenges. This suggests stability and the ability to weather uncertainties in the long run. Meanwhile, its Growth score of 3 indicates potential for expansion and development, showcasing promising prospects for future business growth.
Moreover, while Match Group may not score high on the Value factor with a 0 rating, its Momentum score of 3 signifies a positive trend in the company’s performance. Combined, these scores provide insights into Match Group’s overall outlook, showcasing resilience, growth potential, and an upward trajectory in the market.
Disclaimer: This article by Smartkarma is general in nature and based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that our articles may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation, Smartkarma makes no assurance about the accuracy of any generated data or content. All content is indicative only and should be independently checked for accuracy and confirmed before use. Smartkarma accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage caused as a result of any inaccuracy or error within the Lab online tools or generated data.
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