- ZTO Express revised its full-year parcel volume forecast to between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, down from the previous range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion. The prior estimate was 39.46 billion.
- For the third quarter, ZTO achieved adjusted earnings per American Depositary Receipt of 3.06 yuan, up from 2.91 yuan year-on-year and exceeding the estimate of 2.52 yuan.
- Total earnings per American Depositary Receipt were 3.10 yuan compared to 2.90 yuan year-on-year.
- The company’s revenue for the third quarter was 11.86 billion yuan, marking an 11% increase year-over-year, slightly below the estimate of 11.87 billion yuan.
- Express delivery services revenue rose by 12% year-on-year to 11.02 billion yuan, while freight forwarding services revenue fell 7.4% to 222.7 million yuan.
- Sale of accessories generated 590.9 million yuan, showing a marginal increase of 0.5% year-on-year, whereas “Others” category revenue decreased by 7.5% to 31.0 million yuan.
- The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of 3.58 billion yuan, which represents a 4.2% decrease from the previous year.
- Parcel volume for the third quarter was 9.57 billion, reflecting a 9.7% increase year-over-year, yet it fell short of the estimated 9.96 billion.
- The company’s revised annual parcel volume guidance indicates a growth of 12.3% to 13.8% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
- Cost-effective improvements were noted with a 5-cent reduction in combined unit sorting and transportation costs due to enhanced transportation cost efficiency.
- Analysts’ ratings include 20 buys and 4 holds, indicating strong market support.
ZTO Express Cayman on Smartkarma
Analysts on Smartkarma, such as Daniel Hellberg, have provided bearish insights on ZTO Express Cayman. In the recent report titled “Alibaba’s Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To ‘Others’ Status | Implications for Chinese Express?”, Hellberg discusses how Alibaba’s move of demoting CaiNiao in their earnings release indicates a shift in priorities away from boosting e-commerce logistics. This shift may have implications for companies that received investments from Alibaba and CaiNiao.
In another report by Daniel Hellberg, titled “ZTO Express Q225 Results: No ‘Good’, Just the ‘Bad’ and the ‘Ugly’“, the analyst highlights ZTO’s weak performance in Q2 2025, with declining margins, cash flow, and reduced volume growth targets for the fiscal year. With no apparent signs of improvement, Hellberg maintains a negative view on ZTO Express Cayman based on the reported results.
A look at ZTO Express Cayman Smart Scores
| Factor | Score | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|
| Value | 4 | |
| Dividend | 5 | |
| Growth | 4 | |
| Resilience | 4 | |
| Momentum | 4 | |
| OVERALL SMART SCORE | 4.2 |
Smart Score is a compound score for the Company indicating its overall outlook. It is derived by taking an equally weighted average of underlying Factor scores computed by Smartkarma
Based on the Smartkarma Smart Scores for ZTO Express Cayman, the company is positioned favorably for long-term growth and stability. With strong ratings across Value, Dividend, Growth, Resilience, and Momentum, ZTO Express Cayman appears to be on a solid footing in the express delivery industry. This indicates a positive overall outlook for the company’s future performance and prospects.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is an express delivery company that operates a nationwide network providing express delivery services and other logistics solutions. With a high Dividend score and robust ratings in Growth, Resilience, and Momentum, ZTO Express Cayman seems well-equipped to serve its global customer base and maintain a strong position in the market for the foreseeable future.
Disclaimer: This article by Smartkarma is general in nature and based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that our articles may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation, Smartkarma makes no assurance about the accuracy of any generated data or content. All content is indicative only and should be independently checked for accuracy and confirmed before use. Smartkarma accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage caused as a result of any inaccuracy or error within the Lab online tools or generated data.
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