Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

I am Raj - CA and CFA. A Buy-side analyst.

I cover BFSI, Autos, Tech, AI and several other sectors across geographies.
   
I am a CA and CFA, with 10+ years experience in fundamental equity research across buy-side and sell-side and across geographies.

My research process is primarily focused on the catalysts which would have a direct impact on a stocks fundamental performance and market valuation. These days, I look for names which have a clear mis-pricing evident in its valuation vs. fundamental business moats/ growth/ NAV. Fortunately, there are always such stories around. More importantly, the timeline of when the mis-pricing is resolved and what triggers this resolution is what interests me.

QFIN US - Follow-Up: Asset-Quality Pressure Undermines Early Bull Case; Recovery Shifts to 2026e

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.</li>
<li>QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.</li>
<li>Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).</li>
</ul>


QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.
QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.
Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).


2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity

360 Finance, Inc.

2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity