European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ABB's 506p offer values Rotork at 18.9x NTM EBITDA, but estimated £42m annual synergies reduce the effective acquisition multiple to approximately 15.8x, supporting the industrial rationale.</li>
<li>Rotork traded well below comparable automation companies before the approach. We estimate a standalone value of 390p/share, implying ABB pays a 30% premium to intrinsic value.</li>
<li>The remaining 4.3% spread appears attractive given unanimous Board support, committed financing and limited antitrust overlap, with international regulatory approvals representing the principal execution risk.</li>
</ul>


ABB's 506p offer values Rotork at 18.9x NTM EBITDA, but estimated £42m annual synergies reduce the effective acquisition multiple to approximately 15.8x, supporting the industrial rationale.
Rotork traded well below comparable automation companies before the approach. We estimate a standalone value of 390p/share, implying ABB pays a 30% premium to intrinsic value.
The remaining 4.3% spread appears attractive given unanimous Board support, committed financing and limited antitrust overlap, with international regulatory approvals representing the principal execution risk.


ABB/Rotork: A Full Price for an Undervalued Business