European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

ABB/Rotork: A Full Price for an Undervalued Business

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rotork's shareholder vote is complete, removing one execution risk. The remaining 503p cash consideration offers a 3.6% spread at the 485.4p close.</li>
<li>Regulatory filings are under way in Germany and Austria, with no indication of substantive competition concerns. We move expected settlement from May to March 2027.</li>
<li>A March settlement implies c.7.1% annualised. We raise completion probability from 90% to 95%, giving a 497.4p expected value and 2.5% upside.</li>
</ul>


Rotork's shareholder vote is complete, removing one execution risk. The remaining 503p cash consideration offers a 3.6% spread at the 485.4p close.
Regulatory filings are under way in Germany and Austria, with no indication of substantive competition concerns. We move expected settlement from May to March 2027.
A March settlement implies c.7.1% annualised. We raise completion probability from 90% to 95%, giving a 497.4p expected value and 2.5% upside.


Rotork

ABB/Rotork: Turning the Spread