European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: "Best and Final" Offer

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Lapsed Offer

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal: Getting the Holdouts on Board

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 23 November, Aareal Bank agreed to a €29/share offer, c. 35% premium to 3-month VWAP, implied equity value €1,736 million, 16.5x Fwd P/E and 0.67x Price/Next FY BVPS (Capital IQ consensus).</li>
<li>The offer has been dubbed too low by several shareholders, which could prevent squeeze-out. Blue-sky, Aareal could be worth up to €35.8/share (blended average of comps-based Fwd P/E and P/B). </li>
<li>As of 29 November, the shares closed at €29.08, 0.3% above offer price. The market cautiously awaits a sweetened offer. Considering the downside, I would recommend <strong>speculative buy</strong>.</li>
</ul>


On 23 November, Aareal Bank agreed to a €29/share offer, c. 35% premium to 3-month VWAP, implied equity value €1,736 million, 16.5x Fwd P/E and 0.67x Price/Next FY BVPS (Capital IQ consensus).
The offer has been dubbed too low by several shareholders, which could prevent squeeze-out. Blue-sky, Aareal could be worth up to €35.8/share (blended average of comps-based Fwd P/E and P/B). 
As of 29 November, the shares closed at €29.08, 0.3% above offer price. The market cautiously awaits a sweetened offer. Considering the downside, I would recommend speculative buy.


Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Agreed Takeover Offer