European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal: Getting the Holdouts on Board

Advent & Centerbridge/Aareal: Bid Progress, Attractive Spread

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: All Conditions Met

Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Agreed Takeover Offer

Advent & CenterBridge/​Aareal Bank AG: "Best and Final" Offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>By considering both Advent's valuation of Aareon and Aareon's multiple implied valuation, the consortium was paying 0.43x P/BV for the banking business, well below comparables trading at 1.4x.</li>
<li>It is no surprise then that the offer lapsed. According to my SOTP, by conservatively applying 0.8x P/BV for the banking business, upside for the shares ranges from 52-62%.</li>
<li>Recommendation is long ARL GR. The shares represent good value and the catalyst is the future spin-off.</li>
</ul>


By considering both Advent's valuation of Aareon and Aareon's multiple implied valuation, the consortium was paying 0.43x P/BV for the banking business, well below comparables trading at 1.4x.
It is no surprise then that the offer lapsed. According to my SOTP, by conservatively applying 0.8x P/BV for the banking business, upside for the shares ranges from 52-62%.
Recommendation is long ARL GR. The shares represent good value and the catalyst is the future spin-off.


Advent & CenterBridge/Aareal Bank AG: Lapsed Offer