Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Alibaba Cloud - On Path to Fetch Zero Dollar Valuation

Alibaba: Buoyed By The Ending Crackdowns, Yet Expensive With No Turnaround in Sight For Cash Cows

Alibaba: A Mediocre Beat Won't Nullify Escalating US-China Tensions & A Deteriorating Core Business

Alibaba: Freshippo Seeks Funding at a Lowered $6.0bn Valuation, An Indication of Financial Troubles

Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert

China’s Crackdown on Big Tech: Not Over by Any Means

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s 1QFY23 results were above consensus but it was still quite disappointing with revenue and OP declining 0.1% and 19.1% YoY respectively.</li>
<li>Withholding the disclosure of active buyers, which Alibaba was proudly speaking of in the previous quarter, is a tell-tale sign that the business is undergoing some serious trouble.</li>
<li>With expectations of 9.4% YoY OP growth in the next 3-quarters and 42% YoY OP growth in FY24, we think consensus is optimistic from 2QFY23 and bound for a correction.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s 1QFY23 results were above consensus but it was still quite disappointing with revenue and OP declining 0.1% and 19.1% YoY respectively.
Withholding the disclosure of active buyers, which Alibaba was proudly speaking of in the previous quarter, is a tell-tale sign that the business is undergoing some serious trouble.
With expectations of 9.4% YoY OP growth in the next 3-quarters and 42% YoY OP growth in FY24, we think consensus is optimistic from 2QFY23 and bound for a correction.


Alibaba Group Holding

Alibaba: Growth Avenues Are Closing Fast