Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Recommendation as Rates Move in Opposite Directions in India and Mexico

Alpha Bites: Receive Mexico 5y Vs Pay South Africa 5y Local Rate

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Flattener Recommendations in Thailand and India

India's Trade-Led Acceleration in GDP Unlikely to Lose Momentum in 2022

Alpha Bites: Long Indian Rupee (INR) Vs Short Indonesian Rupiah (IDR)

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>With rates in India vulnerable to a further correction in the US, I recommend paying India 5y vs receiving Mexico 5y rate in a beta-neutral ratio.</li>
<li>Real rates in India are the lowest among major emerging countries, which along with rising inflation expectations and strong growth should pressure the RBI to raise rates soon.</li>
<li>Mexico is appealing as a receiver against paying in India because the central bank is further along in its monetary tightening cycle as is evident from the high real rates.</li>
</ul>


With rates in India vulnerable to a further correction in the US, I recommend paying India 5y vs receiving Mexico 5y rate in a beta-neutral ratio.
Real rates in India are the lowest among major emerging countries, which along with rising inflation expectations and strong growth should pressure the RBI to raise rates soon.
Mexico is appealing as a receiver against paying in India because the central bank is further along in its monetary tightening cycle as is evident from the high real rates.


Alpha Bites: Pay India 5y Vs Receive Mexico 5y Local Rate

INR 5Y

Alpha Bites: Pay India 5y Vs Receive Mexico 5y Local Rate