Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.
I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

<ul>
<li>While EM rates on aggregate have moved up as US rates have risen, there is a fair degree of differentiation within EM; e.g., the divergence between India and Mexico.</li>
<li>Rates in India climbed higher following the pro-growth budget, which increased borrowing needs, while yields rallied in Mexico following indications that the country has entered a technical recession.</li>
<li>These idiosyncratic developments accelerated the divergence in rates between the two countries, allowing me to suggest taking profits on my Receive Mexico 5y vs Pay India 5y rate trade recommendation.</li>
</ul>


While EM rates on aggregate have moved up as US rates have risen, there is a fair degree of differentiation within EM; e.g., the divergence between India and Mexico.
Rates in India climbed higher following the pro-growth budget, which increased borrowing needs, while yields rallied in Mexico following indications that the country has entered a technical recession.
These idiosyncratic developments accelerated the divergence in rates between the two countries, allowing me to suggest taking profits on my Receive Mexico 5y vs Pay India 5y rate trade recommendation.


Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Recommendation as Rates Move in Opposite Directions in India and Mexico

<ul>
<li>With rates in India vulnerable to a further correction in the US, I recommend paying India 5y vs receiving Mexico 5y rate in a beta-neutral ratio.</li>
<li>Real rates in India are the lowest among major emerging countries, which along with rising inflation expectations and strong growth should pressure the RBI to raise rates soon.</li>
<li>Mexico is appealing as a receiver against paying in India because the central bank is further along in its monetary tightening cycle as is evident from the high real rates.</li>
</ul>


With rates in India vulnerable to a further correction in the US, I recommend paying India 5y vs receiving Mexico 5y rate in a beta-neutral ratio.
Real rates in India are the lowest among major emerging countries, which along with rising inflation expectations and strong growth should pressure the RBI to raise rates soon.
Mexico is appealing as a receiver against paying in India because the central bank is further along in its monetary tightening cycle as is evident from the high real rates.


Alpha Bites: Pay India 5y Vs Receive Mexico 5y Local Rate

<p>In this week’s Alpha Bites, I recommend closing rate curve flatteners in Thailand and India. I had recommended flatteners in these two countries as curves in Asian countries in general lagged the flattening in the US and the rest of EM. This was because of rising growth uncertainty resulting from new coronavirus waves amid slow pace of vaccinations. This is now changing as rate curves in both countries have begun to price in monetary tightening, leading to flattening of the curves.</p>

In this week’s Alpha Bites, I recommend closing rate curve flatteners in Thailand and India. I had recommended flatteners in these two countries as curves in Asian countries in general lagged the flattening in the US and the rest of EM. This was because of rising growth uncertainty resulting from new coronavirus waves amid slow pace of vaccinations. This is now changing as rate curves in both countries have begun to price in monetary tightening, leading to flattening of the curves.

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Flattener Recommendations in Thailand and India

<p>In this edition of Alpha Bites, I list my current open trade recommendations in EM FX and rates along with links to notes where I discuss the trades in more detail. The tables include expected returns on the trades on a 3-month horizon assuming mean reversion in this period.</p>

In this edition of Alpha Bites, I list my current open trade recommendations in EM FX and rates along with links to notes where I discuss the trades in more detail. The tables include expected returns on the trades on a 3-month horizon assuming mean reversion in this period.

Alpha Bites: Current Trade Recommendations in EM FX and Rates

INR 5Y (IRSWO5 CURNCY)

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 25 of the 35 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Recommendation as Rates Move in Opposite Directions in India and Mexico

Idiosyncratic developments accelerated the divergence in rates between Mexico and India, allowing me to suggest taking profits on Receive Mexico 5y...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Pay India 5y Vs Receive Mexico 5y Local Rate

With rates in India one of the most vulnerable to a further correction in the US, I recommend paying the 5-year local rate in India vs receiving...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Flattener Recommendations in Thailand and India

I recommend closing flattener recommendations in Thailand and India as rate curves in both countries have begun to price in monetary tightening,...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Current Trade Recommendations in EM FX and Rates

In this edition of Alpha Bites, I list my current open trade recommendations in EM FX and rates along with links to notes where I discuss the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA