Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alps/Alpine, Don Quijote, MYOB, Guoco, Lotte Holdings, Melco

Alpine Merger Situation Gets Interestinger

Last Week in Event SPACE: Spring REIT, Alps/Alpine, NTT, JCNC, Restaurant Brands, A/H

Alps Tosses Alpine Shareholders a Peanut. I'd Toss It Back.

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">With apologies to Daft Punk (whose song <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yydNF8tuVmU" target="_blank">"Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger"</a> is a great example of the genre (as is Kanye West's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsO6ZnUZI0g" target="_blank">"Stronger"</a> homage to Daft Punk's song - (ed: OK shoot me know))).</div>This morning's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alpine-endgame-alps-launchpad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24891">Alpine Endgame = ALPS Launchpad?</a> suggested that the "right trade" in this ongoing saga - one approaching its climactic denouement - would be to be long both<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2704:1">Alpine Electronics (6816 JP)</a>and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Electric (6770 JP)</a>. If the merger goes through, then Alps uses Alpine's cash to buy back shares in accordance with its new <a href="https://www.alps.com/pdf/ir/disclosure/20180927_info_e.pdf" target="_blank">Basic Policy on Shareholder Returns under the Holding Company Structure</a> announced September 27th. It would then be in a place to reap the extremely punchy synergy benefits recently proposed by the Alps CEO. Yesterday, the calculus changed yet again.The day before, large shareholder and erstwhile activist Elliott Management <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/download?uji.verb=W0EZA104CXP001003Action&amp;uji.bean=ee.bean.parent.EECommonSearchBean&amp;PID=W1E63011&amp;SESSIONKEY=1539163029764&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;pkbn=0&amp;skbn=1&amp;dskb=&amp;askb=&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;preId=1&amp;mul=6770&amp;fls=on&amp;lpr=on&amp;cal=1&amp;era=H&amp;yer=&amp;mon=&amp;pfs=4&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=&amp;s=S100E8ZH" target="_blank">reported</a> it had increased its stake in Alps from 6.26% to 9.22%, with that increment happening over two days - October 4th and 5th. Their position in Alpine had remained unchanged at 7.33% since end July.YESTERDAY, they <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/download?uji.verb=W0EZA104CXP001003Action&amp;uji.bean=ee.bean.parent.EECommonSearchBean&amp;PID=W1E63011&amp;SESSIONKEY=1539163029764&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;pkbn=0&amp;skbn=1&amp;dskb=&amp;askb=&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;preId=1&amp;mul=6770&amp;fls=on&amp;lpr=on&amp;cal=1&amp;era=H&amp;yer=&amp;mon=&amp;pfs=4&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=&amp;s=S100E98N" target="_blank">reported</a> they had bought another 3.928mm shares in Alps on the 9th, lifting their stake to 11.22%. They also reported they had increased their stake in Alpine from 7.33% to 9.78% through a purchase of 1.17mm shares (1.68% of shares out) on Monday (meaning they had bought another 77bp subsequent to reporting last July.As noted in yesterday morning's piece, volume traded in Alps and Alpine on the 5th and the 9th was a VERY significant portion of remaining Real Float.  And it looks like Elliott bought 46% of the Alps volume over those two days, and it looks like they bought 66.6% of Alpine volume yesterday. Yesterday, volume on both names was far lower. How has the calculus changed? Read on.

With apologies to Daft Punk (whose song "Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger" is a great example of the genre (as is Kanye West's "Stronger" homage to Daft Punk's song - (ed: OK shoot me know))).This morning's Alpine Endgame = ALPS Launchpad? suggested that the "right trade" in this ongoing saga - one approaching its climactic denouement - would be to be long bothAlpine Electronics (6816 JP)andAlps Electric (6770 JP). If the merger goes through, then Alps uses Alpine's cash to buy back shares in accordance with its new Basic Policy on Shareholder Returns under the Holding Company Structure announced September 27th. It would then be in a place to reap the extremely punchy synergy benefits recently proposed by the Alps CEO. Yesterday, the calculus changed yet again.The day before, large shareholder and erstwhile activist Elliott Management reported it had increased its stake in Alps from 6.26% to 9.22%, with that increment happening over two days - October 4th and 5th. Their position in Alpine had remained unchanged at 7.33% since end July.YESTERDAY, they reported they had bought another 3.928mm shares in Alps on the 9th, lifting their stake to 11.22%. They also reported they had increased their stake in Alpine from 7.33% to 9.78% through a purchase of 1.17mm shares (1.68% of shares out) on Monday (meaning they had bought another 77bp subsequent to reporting last July.As noted in yesterday morning's piece, volume traded in Alps and Alpine on the 5th and the 9th was a VERY significant portion of remaining Real Float.  And it looks like Elliott bought 46% of the Alps volume over those two days, and it looks like they bought 66.6% of Alpine volume yesterday. Yesterday, volume on both names was far lower. How has the calculus changed? Read on. 

Alps & Alpine: Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

Alps Alpine

Alps & Alpine: Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger