Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

AMMN IJ – Transitional Trough in 9M25; FY26 Mining Upside, Index Overhang Persists

AMMN.IJ – Smelter Ramp-Up Underway, Elang Optionality in Focus, Valuation Reflects Long-Term Upside

Equity Bottom-Up

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.</li>
<li>Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~USD 37 bn (IDR 8,175/share), AMMN looks fully priced, with our SOTP implying 10–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.
Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.
Valuation: At ~USD 37 bn (IDR 8,175/share), AMMN looks fully priced, with our SOTP implying 10–20% downside.


Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced