Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

AMMN.IJ – Smelter Ramp-Up Underway, Elang Optionality in Focus, Valuation Reflects Long-Term Upside

Equity Bottom-Up

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation &gt;50% in FY26.</li>
<li>FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.</li>
<li>Index risk rising: gold share &lt;20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation &gt;50% in FY26.
FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.
Index risk rising: gold share &lt;20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.


AMMN IJ – Transitional Trough in 9M25; FY26 Mining Upside, Index Overhang Persists