European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Anglo–Teck: Policy Overhang Lifted; Timing Now the Story

Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Polishing the Pair: De Beers Bid Tension and the Anglo–Teck Trade

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Copper Convergence — Votes & De Beers in Focus

Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.</li>
<li>On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).</li>
<li>De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.</li>
</ul>


Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.
On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).
De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.


Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Anglo American

Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA