European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Cut & Clarity — De Beers Valuation Reset

Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Copper Convergence — Votes & De Beers in Focus

Anglo–Teck: Policy Overhang Lifted; Timing Now the Story

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Anglo flags De Beers sale to a public-private consortium; Botswana likely lifts its stake, Angola targets 20–30%. A visible price marker supports AAL optics and can widen the pair pre-close.</li>
<li>Net of AAL’s US$4.19 special: +1.74% upside (no TECK dividend) or +1.90% (with C$0.125). If one AAL ordinary pays: +1.26%/+1.42%. Maintain long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with USD overlay.</li>
<li>ICA cleared; Canada and Australia competition done. Remaining: US, China, South Africa, plus B.C. court order. Spread now trades on approval pacing, copper tape, and De Beers headlines into milestones.</li>
</ul>


Anglo flags De Beers sale to a public-private consortium; Botswana likely lifts its stake, Angola targets 20–30%. A visible price marker supports AAL optics and can widen the pair pre-close.
Net of AAL’s US$4.19 special: +1.74% upside (no TECK dividend) or +1.90% (with C$0.125). If one AAL ordinary pays: +1.26%/+1.42%. Maintain long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with USD overlay.
ICA cleared; Canada and Australia competition done. Remaining: US, China, South Africa, plus B.C. court order. Spread now trades on approval pacing, copper tape, and De Beers headlines into milestones.


Polishing the Pair: De Beers Bid Tension and the Anglo–Teck Trade

Anglo American

Polishing the Pair: De Beers Bid Tension and the Anglo–Teck Trade