European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Anglo–Teck: Policy Overhang Lifted; Timing Now the Story

Polishing the Pair: De Beers Bid Tension and the Anglo–Teck Trade

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>FY25 reset: De Beers now carried at US$2.3bn; Anglo signals a consortium sale with Botswana likely to raise its stake and Angola/Namibia interested—raising odds of a visible 2026 price marker.</li>
<li>Deal path cleaner: ICA cleared and many antitrust approvals in hand. Remaining focus is China and South Korea, plus final B.C. court steps and sequencing—more about timing than structure.</li>
<li>Trade lens: ratio unchanged, but De Beers headlines can re-rate AAL faster than TECK, widening the pair. We stay long TECK(B) / short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with dividend overlays.</li>
</ul>


FY25 reset: De Beers now carried at US$2.3bn; Anglo signals a consortium sale with Botswana likely to raise its stake and Angola/Namibia interested—raising odds of a visible 2026 price marker.
Deal path cleaner: ICA cleared and many antitrust approvals in hand. Remaining focus is China and South Korea, plus final B.C. court steps and sequencing—more about timing than structure.
Trade lens: ratio unchanged, but De Beers headlines can re-rate AAL faster than TECK, widening the pair. We stay long TECK(B) / short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged with dividend overlays.


Cut & Clarity — De Beers Valuation Reset

Anglo American

Cut & Clarity — De Beers Valuation Reset