Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Michael Allen is a representative director of Azabu Research, an independent research company focused on turnaround situations in the Japanese stock market. He has covered Japanese stocks for more than 30 years in both sell-side and buy-side roles and is fluent in both written and spoken Japanese.  He holds a degree in international studies from the University of Pacific, and certificates in corporate governance from both the Board Director Training Institute of Japan and the Wharton School of Business.

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Primer: Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) - May 2026

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consensus is stuck on legacy impairment risk, but NPLs have normalized, and real story is a business model that creates multiple paths to high exceptional asset growth and low overhead.</li>
<li>Internet banking is set to grow profits 60% annually and the Investment Banking segment is growing faster and more profitably than most rivals. </li>
<li>The U.S. office blowup is being over-extrapolated. Exposure is down to 2.2% of loans and US office rents are rising and vacancies falling.</li>
</ul>


Consensus is stuck on legacy impairment risk, but NPLs have normalized, and real story is a business model that creates multiple paths to high exceptional asset growth and low overhead.
Internet banking is set to grow profits 60% annually and the Investment Banking segment is growing faster and more profitably than most rivals. 
The U.S. office blowup is being over-extrapolated. Exposure is down to 2.2% of loans and US office rents are rising and vacancies falling.


Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Aozora (8304): The Street Is Fighting the Last War