IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211376" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211514" rel="noopener"> </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-price-range-is-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:212880" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive</a>.</li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.
I previously discussed the IPO in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case and SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive.
The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSBC will release its results on Thursday and there remains risk of far worse credit metrics, not only related to CRE lending in HK and China</li>
<li>Construction loan risks are tangentially related to CRE and are also considered fairly high risk, where HSBC can see sizable migration to stage 3 loans</li>
<li>HSBC remains highly concentrated in UK and N America in its wholesale lending book, which we do not believe is well understood, and risky given economies</li>
</ul>


HSBC will release its results on Thursday and there remains risk of far worse credit metrics, not only related to CRE lending in HK and China
Construction loan risks are tangentially related to CRE and are also considered fairly high risk, where HSBC can see sizable migration to stage 3 loans
HSBC remains highly concentrated in UK and N America in its wholesale lending book, which we do not believe is well understood, and risky given economies


HSBC - Results on Thursday, Risk of BoCom Mark Down, Heavy UK, US Corporate Lending Not Positive

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Financial System Report published on April 18th focuses on the key Japanese bank issues, including the prospect of domestic rate hikes</li>
<li>We focus primarily on the key take-aways from the BoJ report, in particular with relation to potential rate hikes; our key picks appear to be better geared than the average</li>
<li>We highlight Resona, Mizuho and Concordia in the bigger caps, with positive views on Suruga, Gunma and Tokyo Kiraboshi in the regional banks</li>
</ul>


The Financial System Report published on April 18th focuses on the key Japanese bank issues, including the prospect of domestic rate hikes
We focus primarily on the key take-aways from the BoJ report, in particular with relation to potential rate hikes; our key picks appear to be better geared than the average
We highlight Resona, Mizuho and Concordia in the bigger caps, with positive views on Suruga, Gunma and Tokyo Kiraboshi in the regional banks


Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

<ul>
<li>The Japanese banks’ share prices have barely moved following the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates; is it largely discounted or does the continued accommodative stance instil caution? </li>
<li>Japanese banks will benefit from 100% of their deposits at the BoJ earning 0.1%, as opposed to 40% of bank deposits which was the case up to the 20th March</li>
<li>We believe our positive recommendations are all geared into higher domestic interest rates; we highlight Resona, Mizuho and Suruga in this report for their high cash and at bank balances</li>
</ul>


The Japanese banks’ share prices have barely moved following the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates; is it largely discounted or does the continued accommodative stance instil caution? 
Japanese banks will benefit from 100% of their deposits at the BoJ earning 0.1%, as opposed to 40% of bank deposits which was the case up to the 20th March
We believe our positive recommendations are all geared into higher domestic interest rates; we highlight Resona, Mizuho and Suruga in this report for their high cash and at bank balances


Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> for its CRE exposure</li>
<li>Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity </li>
<li>The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by New York Community Bank (NYCB US) for its CRE exposure
Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity 
The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters


US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

Japan

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

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Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

HSBC - Results on Thursday, Risk of BoCom Mark Down, Heavy UK, US Corporate Lending Not Positive

Bank of Nova Scotia's further and sizeable goodwill impairment on its China bank holding during its 4Q ending October 2024, suggests that HSBC may...

Daniel Tabbush

Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

The BoJ's FSR focuses on issues like potential domestic rate hikes. Key picks are Resona, Mizuho, and Concordia in big caps, the positive regional...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

Japanese banks' share prices mark time post-BoJ's exit from negative interest rates, due to BoJ'S continued accommodative stance. We highlight...

Victor Galliano

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

HSBC - Results on Thursday, Risk of BoCom Mark Down, Heavy UK, US Corporate Lending Not Positive

Bank of Nova Scotia's further and sizeable goodwill impairment on its China bank holding during its 4Q ending October 2024, suggests that HSBC may...

Daniel Tabbush

Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

​The BoJ's FSR focuses on issues like potential domestic rate hikes. Key picks are Resona, Mizuho, and Concordia in big caps, the positive regional...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

​Japanese banks' share prices mark time post-BoJ's exit from negative interest rates, due to BoJ'S continued accommodative stance. We highlight...

Victor Galliano

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

The BoJ's FSR focuses on issues like potential domestic rate hikes. Key picks are Resona, Mizuho, and Concordia in big caps, the positive regional...

Japanese banks' share prices mark time post-BoJ's exit from negative interest rates, due to BoJ'S continued accommodative stance. We highlight...