Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

Bank of Japan Meeting Signals– Our Take on the Implications for Japanese Banks

Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Japanese Banks – No Change to Our Bullish View on the Back of the BoJ’s Pause on Interest Rates

Rakuten Bank - In Japan With 65% Loan Growth

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3QFY23 results reveal losses related to Aozora’s US CRE exposure and securities portfolio; management forecasts a FY23 loss and a 50% cut in the previously forecast FY2023 dividend</li>
<li>US CRE exposure is 6.6% of total loans and Aozora’s US CRE deterioration propelled the NPL ratio to 2.87% up 162bps QoQ, the worst NPL ratio of the peer group</li>
<li>The securities portfolio hits are in US MBS and US bond ETFs; SMFG and Mizuho have large relative FX bond exposures, but they have less duration risk</li>
</ul>


3QFY23 results reveal losses related to Aozora’s US CRE exposure and securities portfolio; management forecasts a FY23 loss and a 50% cut in the previously forecast FY2023 dividend
US CRE exposure is 6.6% of total loans and Aozora’s US CRE deterioration propelled the NPL ratio to 2.87% up 162bps QoQ, the worst NPL ratio of the peer group
The securities portfolio hits are in US MBS and US bond ETFs; SMFG and Mizuho have large relative FX bond exposures, but they have less duration risk


Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Aozora Bank (8304 JP) – Two Bets Too Far

Aozora Bank Ltd

Aozora Bank (8304 JP) – Two Bets Too Far