Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26

ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.</li>
<li>Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.</li>
<li>China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.


ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

ASML Holding NV

ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update