Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26

ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 small miss (OP -3% below Consensus), 4Q beat (11% above). 3Q saw large increase in China revenues (+54% QoQ) maybe Chinese Fabs concerned about US restrictions. EUV -21% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Last quarter Management mentioned “we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm at this stage”. Now: “ASML does not expect 2026 total sales to be below 2025".</li>
<li>Management maintains its 2030 targets “revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, gross margin between 56% and 60%“. Nothing new to talk about.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 small miss (OP -3% below Consensus), 4Q beat (11% above). 3Q saw large increase in China revenues (+54% QoQ) maybe Chinese Fabs concerned about US restrictions. EUV -21% QoQ.   
Last quarter Management mentioned “we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm at this stage”. Now: “ASML does not expect 2026 total sales to be below 2025".
Management maintains its 2030 targets “revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, gross margin between 56% and 60%“. Nothing new to talk about.


ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

ASML Holding NV

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”