Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Capital inflows into emerging markets have slowed during 2021 as fears about the Fed  reducing asset purchases have rekindled memories of the infamous taper tantrum during the summer of 2013. Domestic investors in emerging markets are, however, playing a more prominent role in funding budget deficits, thereby reducing countries' vulnerability to capital flight.
Chronic US current account deficits have created off-shore dollar funding markets that have increased the influence of US monetary policy on global financial conditions. The Fed is not bestowed with international responsibilities, while the robust recovery in the US economy makes it unlikely that spillovers from emerging markets will affect the conduct of US monetary policy. Reductions in cross-border bank claims typically form the biggest component of capital flight from emerging markets: US bank claims on residents in Asia and Brazil have fallen in 2021, but not by significant orders of magnitude.
Rich local currency bond market valuations versus US Treasuries prior to the Fed's tapering announcement in 2013 contributed to their sharp sell-off once Treasury yields began to rise, but this does not currently appear to be the case. Furthermore, a full-blown repeat of 2013's capital flight events seem unlikely due to lower current account deficits and a far greater willingness by central banks in emerging markets to raise their policy rates to counter rising inflationary pressures.
The economic outlook in many countries remains uncertain due to different sovereign strategies being deployed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic that will invariably impart differing legacy issues. Countries that have offered a higher level of household support, such as the US and UK, will arguably have more predictable recoveries, while Asia will continue to depend excessively on external demand to drive economic growth.

Capital inflows into emerging markets have slowed during 2021 as fears about the Fed  reducing asset purchases have rekindled memories of the infamous taper tantrum during the summer of 2013. Domestic investors in emerging markets are, however, playing a more prominent role in funding budget deficits, thereby reducing countries' vulnerability to capital flight.
Chronic US current account deficits have created off-shore dollar funding markets that have increased the influence of US monetary policy on global financial conditions. The Fed is not bestowed with international responsibilities, while the robust recovery in the US economy makes it unlikely that spillovers from emerging markets will affect the conduct of US monetary policy. Reductions in cross-border bank claims typically form the biggest component of capital flight from emerging markets: US bank claims on residents in Asia and Brazil have fallen in 2021, but not by significant orders of magnitude.
Rich local currency bond market valuations versus US Treasuries prior to the Fed's tapering announcement in 2013 contributed to their sharp sell-off once Treasury yields began to rise, but this does not currently appear to be the case. Furthermore, a full-blown repeat of 2013's capital flight events seem unlikely due to lower current account deficits and a far greater willingness by central banks in emerging markets to raise their policy rates to counter rising inflationary pressures.
The economic outlook in many countries remains uncertain due to different sovereign strategies being deployed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic that will invariably impart differing legacy issues. Countries that have offered a higher level of household support, such as the US and UK, will arguably have more predictable recoveries, while Asia will continue to depend excessively on external demand to drive economic growth.

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