Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<p>The recent behaviour of consumer spending in the US and China suggests that COVID-19 vaccine rollouts are not a panacea towards the restoration of predictable economic growth, particularly in the realm of consumer spending. China and the US have significantly different vaccination rates, but recent consumer activity in both countries has not been plain-sailing for various reasons. </p><p>According to the current consensus view, consumer spending will be a major driving force behind strong US economic growth in 2021, but recent declines in consumer confidence suggest households realise that generous fiscal and monetary stimulus cannot last forever. Meanwhile, consumers in China appear to be hesitant, despite economic recovery, due to an uneven recovery in labour demand that has kept unemployment for younger workers at elevated levels.</p><div>China is determined to keep a grip on economic and social activity to prevent new COVID-19 cases from disrupting celebrations for the 100th Anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Consumer spending in China will be vulnerable to continued social restrictions in the near-term as well as the persistence of elevated unemployment for younger workers, thereby making it more difficult to remove monetary stimulus put into motion last year to support the economy. </div><div></div><div>
<div>The global recovery in consumer spending and economic growth will be both uncertain and uneven due to slower vaccination rates and lower degrees of direct fiscal support for households in some regions, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, consumers in all countries are still susceptible to setbacks with the potential arrival of new COVID-19 variants, thereby raising the ante on governments and central banks not to prematurely remove stimulus measures. </div>
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The recent behaviour of consumer spending in the US and China suggests that COVID-19 vaccine rollouts are not a panacea towards the restoration of predictable economic growth, particularly in the realm of consumer spending. China and the US have significantly different vaccination rates, but recent consumer activity in both countries has not been plain-sailing for various reasons. According to the current consensus view, consumer spending will be a major driving force behind strong US economic growth in 2021, but recent declines in consumer confidence suggest households realise that generous fiscal and monetary stimulus cannot last forever. Meanwhile, consumers in China appear to be hesitant, despite economic recovery, due to an uneven recovery in labour demand that has kept unemployment for younger workers at elevated levels.China is determined to keep a grip on economic and social activity to prevent new COVID-19 cases from disrupting celebrations for the 100th Anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Consumer spending in China will be vulnerable to continued social restrictions in the near-term as well as the persistence of elevated unemployment for younger workers, thereby making it more difficult to remove monetary stimulus put into motion last year to support the economy. 
The global recovery in consumer spending and economic growth will be both uncertain and uneven due to slower vaccination rates and lower degrees of direct fiscal support for households in some regions, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, consumers in all countries are still susceptible to setbacks with the potential arrival of new COVID-19 variants, thereby raising the ante on governments and central banks not to prematurely remove stimulus measures. 



COVID-19 Vaccines: Not a Panacea for Predictable Consumer Spending Recoveries