Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Deep Fundamental Analysis

LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

[Part 3] What Advantest and FormFactor’s Earnings Say About CPO’s Bottleneck

Where Is the True Value in the Optics Trade? A Comparison of 3 ETFs

The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Israel Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.</li>
<li>CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.</li>
<li>The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.</li>
</ul>


Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.
CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.
The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume