HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Don't Bet on the Winter Olympics

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Narrowing Loss in 3Q20

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Extending Traffic Outperformance to Oct

Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport (600004 CH): No Abatement in Growth Paces

2021 High Conviction: Pair Trade - Long Air China (753 HK), Short China Southern (1055 HK)

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA)

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a> staged a 45% relief rally since Nov on several piece of good news and more optimistic expectations, but we see such move as excessive. Its 12-month forward P/B multiple has hence moved back to 1.03x, about the level before the pandemic. This is clearly difficult to justify given the challenges it will face in the next two years.</p><p>The traffic diversion to Beijing Daxing International Airport, slow recovery of international traffic and heavy reliance of duty free on international routes will make BCIA difficult to return to its FY19 profit level in FY22, but the share price is now reflecting this scenario. We find this unrealistic and believe there is significant downside risk. It is also interesting to note that average short volume in Dec has picked up to 23%, compared with just 10% in Nov.</p>

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) staged a 45% relief rally since Nov on several piece of good news and more optimistic expectations, but we see such move as excessive. Its 12-month forward P/B multiple has hence moved back to 1.03x, about the level before the pandemic. This is clearly difficult to justify given the challenges it will face in the next two years.The traffic diversion to Beijing Daxing International Airport, slow recovery of international traffic and heavy reliance of duty free on international routes will make BCIA difficult to return to its FY19 profit level in FY22, but the share price is now reflecting this scenario. We find this unrealistic and believe there is significant downside risk. It is also interesting to note that average short volume in Dec has picked up to 23%, compared with just 10% in Nov.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)

Beijing Cap Intl Airport (694 HK): Don't Get Too Excited, The Relief Rally Is Excessive