Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Is QT Already Dead? Can The Fed Really ‘Ease’ Liquidity And Still ‘Tighten’?

US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

US: Inflation Shock Implies More Rate Hikes Needed Even as Recession Looms

FOMC Acknowledges Its Policy Error and Will Front-Load Rate Hikes

Biden Stimulus+ Will Be Inflationary; Policy Stability Is Enabling a More Leftward Tilt

US Wages Are Resurgent, Even if Markets Haven't Noticed; Keep Your Eye on Inflation

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Japan: The Winner from This Year's Spurt of Inflation

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC hiked the Fed Funds rate 50bp to 4.25-4.5% as expected, and raised the median forecast to 5.1% for end-2023. We still expect a 5% peak in Mar'23.</li>
<li>M2 grew faster in Mar'20-Feb'22 than in any month for a century. But M2 decelerated to 1.25%YoY growth in Oct'22, so core PCE inflation will ease to 3.5% by Mar'23.</li>
<li>The steeply inverted yield curve and ISM new orders (&lt;50 for 3 months) make recession inevitable by Q2/2023. Core Inflation at 2.5%YoY will bring a 25bp rate cut in Jul'23.   </li>
</ul>


FOMC hiked the Fed Funds rate 50bp to 4.25-4.5% as expected, and raised the median forecast to 5.1% for end-2023. We still expect a 5% peak in Mar'23.
M2 grew faster in Mar'20-Feb'22 than in any month for a century. But M2 decelerated to 1.25%YoY growth in Oct'22, so core PCE inflation will ease to 3.5% by Mar'23.
The steeply inverted yield curve and ISM new orders (&lt;50 for 3 months) make recession inevitable by Q2/2023. Core Inflation at 2.5%YoY will bring a 25bp rate cut in Jul'23.   


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Belated Fed Hawkishness Makes Recession Inevitable; Rate Cut Likely by Jul'23