Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Marginal Cost Reduction from Copper Shipment Deal

BHP: Operations Strong in Q4/25 But Looking Fully Valued

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A volatile metal price has boosted the risk for BHP’s remaining strong major segment, copper, while the other two key divisions, iron ore and coal, are still sluggish</li>
<li>We forecast a weaker 2025E-2026E than consensus, given the risk that global demand disappoints and continues to pressure metal prices for BHP’s three key segments</li>
<li>Our conservative valuation puts BHP near fair value, and while the P/B of 2.4x is only moderately elevated versus recent history, we see the risks weighted to the downside</li>
</ul>


A volatile metal price has boosted the risk for BHP’s remaining strong major segment, copper, while the other two key divisions, iron ore and coal, are still sluggish
We forecast a weaker 2025E-2026E than consensus, given the risk that global demand disappoints and continues to pressure metal prices for BHP’s three key segments
Our conservative valuation puts BHP near fair value, and while the P/B of 2.4x is only moderately elevated versus recent history, we see the risks weighted to the downside


BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile

BHP Group Ltd

BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile