Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather</li>
<li>The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market </li>
<li>We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore </li>
</ul>


BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather
The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market 
We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore 


BHP: Operations Strong in Q4/25 But Looking Fully Valued

BHP Group Ltd

BHP: Operations Strong in Q4/25 But Looking Fully Valued