Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

FOMC Goldilocks Projections Overlook Fiscal Drag & Student Loan Repayments

US Recession Still Likely but Imports to Rebound Sooner, Benefiting India-ASEAN

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

With a Positive Real FF Rate Restored, FOMC Hiking Cycle Is Nearly Done

Biden Stimulus+ Will Be Inflationary; Policy Stability Is Enabling a More Leftward Tilt

Biden's "Socialist" Remake of the US: How Much Will Be Too Much for the Blue Dogs?

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Japan: The Winner from This Year's Spurt of Inflation

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.</li>
<li>ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.</li>
<li>The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. </li>
</ul>


'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.
ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.
The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. 


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points