Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Adways (2489 JP) - A Dilutive Placement Before and a New Accretive Bigly Buyback

Adways (2489 JP) - Really, Really Big News for a SmallCap

TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On 10 February 2021, digital affiliate advertisement services and mobile/ad content development firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adways-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14696:1" rel="noopener">Adways Inc (2489 JP)</a> announced its Q3 earnings <a href="https://ir.adways.net/irnews/20210210_183b2g.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a> (and two days later the Q3 <a href="https://ir.adways.net/irnews/20210212_1872RM.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yuho</a>), with a <a href="https://ir.adways.net/irnews/20210210_185SQr.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>, and an <a href="https://ir.adways.net/irnews/20210210_182gSN.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upward revision to their full year forecast</a> and dividend.Revenues were set to be 6.4% ahead of the previous forecast, OP 49.6% ahead (and up 520%yoy), and Net Income 71% ahead of the last forecast (+466%yoy) which was made 6 November, which itself was a barn-burner.Those were big numbers already and these are big forecast jumps on top. The shares fell 11.2% in the next two days because the indications for Q4 were less good than expected. The expectation is for a higher revenue but lower quality mix, lower margins, and a small net loss at the net income level. This strikes me as lowballing Q4, but it is tough to know.Today, after the shares rebounded 2.8%, the company announced that the Director in charge of Business Development Yamada-san would become the new CEO in July, and the current CEO (and founder and major shareholder) Okamura-san would become Chairman. Founder Okamura-san retiring from day-to-day CEO-ship is big. He is not ancient by any means. He turns 41 in April. Yamada-san - currently the youngest board member - turns 36 next month. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/091/original/Screenshot+2021-02-16+at+7.46.59+PM.png?1613476065" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189091"></figure></section>They also announced a BIG Buyback. The buyback is for up to 7.5mm shares (18.02% of shares out less treasury) spending up to JPY 3 billion. In actuality, it will likely come in a fair bit smaller than 7.5mm shares. Right now, it is aiming at 4.5mm. But that's still a lot. And there is another positive surprise lying in wait in April. More below the fold.

On 10 February 2021, digital affiliate advertisement services and mobile/ad content development firm Adways Inc (2489 JP) announced its Q3 earnings results (and two days later the Q3 yuho), with a presentation, and an upward revision to their full year forecast and dividend.Revenues were set to be 6.4% ahead of the previous forecast, OP 49.6% ahead (and up 520%yoy), and Net Income 71% ahead of the last forecast (+466%yoy) which was made 6 November, which itself was a barn-burner.Those were big numbers already and these are big forecast jumps on top. The shares fell 11.2% in the next two days because the indications for Q4 were less good than expected. The expectation is for a higher revenue but lower quality mix, lower margins, and a small net loss at the net income level. This strikes me as lowballing Q4, but it is tough to know.Today, after the shares rebounded 2.8%, the company announced that the Director in charge of Business Development Yamada-san would become the new CEO in July, and the current CEO (and founder and major shareholder) Okamura-san would become Chairman. Founder Okamura-san retiring from day-to-day CEO-ship is big. He is not ancient by any means. He turns 41 in April. Yamada-san - currently the youngest board member - turns 36 next month. They also announced a BIG Buyback. The buyback is for up to 7.5mm shares (18.02% of shares out less treasury) spending up to JPY 3 billion. In actuality, it will likely come in a fair bit smaller than 7.5mm shares. Right now, it is aiming at 4.5mm. But that's still a lot. And there is another positive surprise lying in wait in April. More below the fold.

Adways Inc

Big Buyback Announced by Adways (2489)