Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Economic and Funding Conditions Remain Resilient, but Limited Scope for Improvement

Fed's New Chairman: Expect Gradual Changes to Policy Communication and Balance Sheet Management

Further Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage: Technically Difficult Without Regulatory Reforms

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Fed policy communication has hawkishly pivoted due to accelerating inflation. An unchanged policy stance in 2026 seems increasingly likely, but the range of potential outcomes for 2027 has risen.</li>
<li>Policy rate increases in 2026 are not being ruled out by some Fed officials.  The Fed's own internal Taylor Rule estimates suggest the current policy rate is too accommodative.</li>
<li>Identifying the sources of inflationary pressure is crucial for the Fed's policy framework. Policy responses have been less robust when the inflationary pressure is deemed to be supply shocks.</li>
</ul>


Fed policy communication has hawkishly pivoted due to accelerating inflation. An unchanged policy stance in 2026 seems increasingly likely, but the range of potential outcomes for 2027 has risen.
Policy rate increases in 2026 are not being ruled out by some Fed officials.  The Fed's own internal Taylor Rule estimates suggest the current policy rate is too accommodative.
Identifying the sources of inflationary pressure is crucial for the Fed's policy framework. Policy responses have been less robust when the inflationary pressure is deemed to be supply shocks.


Blurred Inflation Signals Increase the Range of Potential Fed Policy Responses