Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Fed's New Chairman: Expect Gradual Changes to Policy Communication and Balance Sheet Management

Blurred Inflation Signals Increase the Range of Potential Fed Policy Responses

Task Forces Galore: Fed Chairman Warsh Hits the Ground Running

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Incoming Chairman Warsh will be wary about reducing the Fed's policy beyond the two discounted reductions in 2026 if inflationary expectations display signs of rising in 2026 H2.</li>
<li>Chairman Warsh will seek to tilt the maturity of the Fed's security holdings towards shorter duration. Further QT will probably require a reduction in the level of bank reserves. </li>
<li>Strong growth of the repo market enhances the need for banks to manage both liquidity and counterparty risks by holding high levels of reserves, thereby making QT technically more difficult.</li>
</ul>


Incoming Chairman Warsh will be wary about reducing the Fed's policy beyond the two discounted reductions in 2026 if inflationary expectations display signs of rising in 2026 H2.
Chairman Warsh will seek to tilt the maturity of the Fed's security holdings towards shorter duration. Further QT will probably require a reduction in the level of bank reserves. 
Strong growth of the repo market enhances the need for banks to manage both liquidity and counterparty risks by holding high levels of reserves, thereby making QT technically more difficult.


Further Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage: Technically Difficult Without Regulatory Reforms