European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer

BMPS–Mediobanca: Sweetener + Waiver Tighten the Spread

BMPS–Mediobanca: Control Secured; Re-Open Week Sets the Next Leg

BMPS's Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications

Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena’s €13.3 Billion Bid for Mediobanca: First Take

A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Market assigns low odds to the current terms, with most of the expected value tied to deal failure or a materially higher exchange ratio.</li>
<li>BMPS now holds effective control, but the –3.5% spread shows investors doubt the deal will close as is without further sweetening.</li>
<li>No arbitrage setup is attractive, as convergence to the implied offer still implies a locked-in loss for Mediobanca holders at current market prices.</li>
</ul>


Market assigns low odds to the current terms, with most of the expected value tied to deal failure or a materially higher exchange ratio.
BMPS now holds effective control, but the –3.5% spread shows investors doubt the deal will close as is without further sweetening.
No arbitrage setup is attractive, as convergence to the implied offer still implies a locked-in loss for Mediobanca holders at current market prices.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No

Mediobanca SpA

BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No