European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BMPS–Mediobanca: Sweetener + Waiver Tighten the Spread

BMPS–Mediobanca: Control Secured; Re-Open Week Sets the Next Leg

BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup

BMPS's Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications

BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No

A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mediobanca trades as a cheap option on a BMPS bump: limited downside, positive skew, and convergence momentum after Generali defence failed. Positioning risk/reward is asymmetric into the September deadline.</li>
<li>With BMPS paper implying little premium, spread tightness reflects embedded expectations of a bump. Investors effectively hold optionality: upside on improved terms, downside cushioned by franchise value and sector consolidation.</li>
<li>Regulatory overhang looks contained: ECB signed off, Rome aligned. Focus shifts to September 8 acceptance deadline, where pressure builds on BMPS to sweeten terms and avoid a messy partial outcome.</li>
</ul>


Mediobanca trades as a cheap option on a BMPS bump: limited downside, positive skew, and convergence momentum after Generali defence failed. Positioning risk/reward is asymmetric into the September deadline.
With BMPS paper implying little premium, spread tightness reflects embedded expectations of a bump. Investors effectively hold optionality: upside on improved terms, downside cushioned by franchise value and sector consolidation.
Regulatory overhang looks contained: ECB signed off, Rome aligned. Focus shifts to September 8 acceptance deadline, where pressure builds on BMPS to sweeten terms and avoid a messy partial outcome.


Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer

Mediobanca SpA

Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer