Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

Behind the Curve Is A Real Risk for the BoJ

Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Held Rates but Sent Hawkish Signals

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Koeda hardened her inflation assessment in today's Fukuoka speech, saying underlying inflation is already around 2% and naming upside risk explicitly for the first time.</li>
<li>Markets may read this as a hawkish June signal. We disagree: Middle East impact is not yet in hard data, and her rate language stays in the executive camp.</li>
<li>Our call is June hold. BoJ majority remains data-dependent. Some data do arrive, such as consumer indicators Koeda mentioned today. But key data such as Tankan arrives after June 16. </li>
</ul>


Koeda hardened her inflation assessment in today's Fukuoka speech, saying underlying inflation is already around 2% and naming upside risk explicitly for the first time.
Markets may read this as a hawkish June signal. We disagree: Middle East impact is not yet in hard data, and her rate language stays in the executive camp.
Our call is June hold. BoJ majority remains data-dependent. Some data do arrive, such as consumer indicators Koeda mentioned today. But key data such as Tankan arrives after June 16. 


BoJ Koeda: Another Question Mark on June Hike