Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

BoJ Himino: A Blunt Critique of US Digital Finance Strategy

BoJ Koeda: Another Question Mark on June Hike

Behind the Curve Is A Real Risk for the BoJ

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>BoJ Masu's speech on May 14 was read by markets as a signal he may join the hawks in June. We think this misreads the conditionality in his key phrase.</li>
<li>His inflation assessment remains aligned with the BoJ majority: “drawing very close" to 2%, but not yet achieved. This places him clearly apart from hawks.</li>
<li>Three additional factors — FX intervention, the data calendar, and Fed meeting timing — reinforce the case for a June hold.</li>
</ul>


BoJ Masu's speech on May 14 was read by markets as a signal he may join the hawks in June. We think this misreads the conditionality in his key phrase.
His inflation assessment remains aligned with the BoJ majority: “drawing very close" to 2%, but not yet achieved. This places him clearly apart from hawks.
Three additional factors — FX intervention, the data calendar, and Fed meeting timing — reinforce the case for a June hold.


BoJ Masu: Don't Price In June Hike Yet