Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

Behind the Votes — Introducing the BoJ Policy Stance Indicator

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0%. Its forward communication signaled that more than one hikes are in store, pointing to at least 1.5% terminal rate or higher.</li>
<li>The majority bloc is turning hawkish even as a likely dove is scheduled to join the board in July. Koeda and Masu are critical swing votes to watch.</li>
<li>JGB purchase will stay level at 2 trillion yen/month from April 2027. Private sector needs to absorb ¥40trn, 6% of GDP, in each the next 4 years.  </li>
</ul>


The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0%. Its forward communication signaled that more than one hikes are in store, pointing to at least 1.5% terminal rate or higher.
The majority bloc is turning hawkish even as a likely dove is scheduled to join the board in July. Koeda and Masu are critical swing votes to watch.
JGB purchase will stay level at 2 trillion yen/month from April 2027. Private sector needs to absorb ¥40trn, 6% of GDP, in each the next 4 years.  


BoJ Signals Terminal Rate Is 1.5% or Higher