Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

BoJ Signals Terminal Rate Is 1.5% or Higher

BoJ Steps Up Its Verbal Yen-Intervention: Expect Faster Rate Hikes

BoJ Koeda: Another Question Mark on June Hike

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We introduce our BoJ PSI, an index tracking each member's stance on Economy, Inflation and Policy Rate. We attribute anonymous remarks in meeting minutes to individual members to produce PSI. </li>
<li>A proof of concept is Nakagawa Junko's April rate hike dissent, which surprised the market. Our PSI record shows her inflation assessment rising from November 2025 through March 2026.</li>
<li>With a June hike well priced in, the question is the timing of the next hike. Our PSI should provide a transparent way to monitor swing votes, Koeda and Masu. </li>
</ul>


We introduce our BoJ PSI, an index tracking each member's stance on Economy, Inflation and Policy Rate. We attribute anonymous remarks in meeting minutes to individual members to produce PSI. 
A proof of concept is Nakagawa Junko's April rate hike dissent, which surprised the market. Our PSI record shows her inflation assessment rising from November 2025 through March 2026.
With a June hike well priced in, the question is the timing of the next hike. Our PSI should provide a transparent way to monitor swing votes, Koeda and Masu. 


Behind the Votes — Introducing the BoJ Policy Stance Indicator