Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

BoJ Tankan: Signs of Continued Reflation Open Doors to Additional BoJ Rate Hikes

Japan's Fiscal Vigilantes Are Misreading the Curve

Behind the Curve Is A Real Risk for the BoJ

Behind the Votes — Introducing the BoJ Policy Stance Indicator

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The BoJ is turning hawkish to defend a weakening yen, breaking its usual silence by linking the policy rate to the exchange rate in June's Summary of Opinions.-</li>
<li>We bring our next-hike call forward to October 2026 (1.25%), then March 2027 (1.5%), with a hike as early as September if yen weakness persists.</li>
<li>We hold our terminal call at 1.5%, unchanged since September 2025. The June board remains dispersed, with only two clear hawks once Nakagawa departs.</li>
</ul>


The BoJ is turning hawkish to defend a weakening yen, breaking its usual silence by linking the policy rate to the exchange rate in June's Summary of Opinions.-
We bring our next-hike call forward to October 2026 (1.25%), then March 2027 (1.5%), with a hike as early as September if yen weakness persists.
We hold our terminal call at 1.5%, unchanged since September 2025. The June board remains dispersed, with only two clear hawks once Nakagawa departs.


BoJ Steps Up Its Verbal Yen-Intervention: Expect Faster Rate Hikes