Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Braskem’s Overweight stance is supported by its strategic relevance and government links, with distressed bond prices already reflecting substantial downside risk.</li>
<li>We find better value in lower-priced bonds, especially the 2030 notes yielding 32.0% for a 3.0-year duration, while we see elevated risk in the 2081 hybrids.</li>
<li>Near-Term outcomes hinge on liquidity solutions, policy relief, and January coupon clarity, though recent developments and potential secured financing improve the probability of an alternative resolution.</li>
</ul>


Braskem’s Overweight stance is supported by its strategic relevance and government links, with distressed bond prices already reflecting substantial downside risk.
We find better value in lower-priced bonds, especially the 2030 notes yielding 32.0% for a 3.0-year duration, while we see elevated risk in the 2081 hybrids.
Near-Term outcomes hinge on liquidity solutions, policy relief, and January coupon clarity, though recent developments and potential secured financing improve the probability of an alternative resolution.


Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

Braskem SA

Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory