Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Braskem 1Q26: Event Risk Drives the Trade

Braskem Standstill Shifts Focus to Structure

Braskem 2Q26: Better Quarter, Harder Credit

Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Downgrade on Survival Fears: Braskem is downgraded to Neutral as going-concern warnings and potential court protection shift the credit narrative from valuation to immediate event risk and survival.</li>
<li>
Severe Fundamental Deterioration: Q4 results revealed a 28% sequential EBITDA drop, persistent cash burn, and net leverage surging to 18.52x, severely straining the company's deteriorating liquidity profile.</li>
<li>
Distressed Bond Positioning: With senior unsecured bonds trading in the low $40s, investors should avoid the vulnerable 2081 hybrids, though the 2031 notes offer the most efficient remaining exposure.</li>
</ul>



Downgrade on Survival Fears: Braskem is downgraded to Neutral as going-concern warnings and potential court protection shift the credit narrative from valuation to immediate event risk and survival.

Severe Fundamental Deterioration: Q4 results revealed a 28% sequential EBITDA drop, persistent cash burn, and net leverage surging to 18.52x, severely straining the company's deteriorating liquidity profile.

Distressed Bond Positioning: With senior unsecured bonds trading in the low $40s, investors should avoid the vulnerable 2081 hybrids, though the 2031 notes offer the most efficient remaining exposure.


Braskem 4Q25: Credit Story Turns to Survival