European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Curator's Cut: Sentiment Shifts in India, Racking Up in Singapore & Gaming Across Borders

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Candle Lake’s SEK695 mandatory offer sits below market and has no minimum acceptance threshold, making tender levels less important than the ownership structure that follows.</li>
<li>Evolution’s buybacks have already lifted Candle Lake’s voting interest to 31.56% and could push it materially higher without requiring further purchases by Kenneth Dart.</li>
<li>At 8.7x NTM EBITDA and 11.4x earnings, we see Evolution as a fundamental long with ownership optionality rather than a conventional merger-arbitrage trade.</li>
</ul>


Candle Lake’s SEK695 mandatory offer sits below market and has no minimum acceptance threshold, making tender levels less important than the ownership structure that follows.
Evolution’s buybacks have already lifted Candle Lake’s voting interest to 31.56% and could push it materially higher without requiring further purchases by Kenneth Dart.
At 8.7x NTM EBITDA and 11.4x earnings, we see Evolution as a fundamental long with ownership optionality rather than a conventional merger-arbitrage trade.


Candle Lake / Evolution: The Long Game After 30%