Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Equity and credit research focused on value chains and capital structure. Experience across traditional metals, materials, advanced materials and industrial cyclicals. Built to Endure.

Lithium Oversupply Still Dominates Despite Electrification Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL-SR SP)

<ul>
<li>The market still largely values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited-shs-unsp-singapore-depositary-receipt-repr-1-30-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48890:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL-SR SP)</a> as a cyclical EV battery manufacturer, underestimating how AI-driven electricity demand shifts value toward storage integration and electricity infrastructure.</li>
<li>The VNET-related investment is unlikely to materially affect near-term earnings, but signals CATL positioning around AI-linked electricity infrastructure, storage integration and localized power resilience systems.</li>
<li>We remain constructive on CATL, with 12-month valuation outcomes ranging from HK$490 to HK$860+, depending on whether ESS achieves infrastructure-quality earnings, while our base-case valuation remains HK$720-750.</li>
</ul>


The market still largely values Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL-SR SP) as a cyclical EV battery manufacturer, underestimating how AI-driven electricity demand shifts value toward storage integration and electricity infrastructure.
The VNET-related investment is unlikely to materially affect near-term earnings, but signals CATL positioning around AI-linked electricity infrastructure, storage integration and localized power resilience systems.
We remain constructive on CATL, with 12-month valuation outcomes ranging from HK$490 to HK$860+, depending on whether ESS achieves infrastructure-quality earnings, while our base-case valuation remains HK$720-750.


CATL: From Battery Supplier Toward Data Center Energy Infrastructure