Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Equity and credit research focused on value chains and capital structure. Experience across traditional metals, materials, advanced materials and industrial cyclicals. Built to Endure.

CATL: From Battery Supplier Toward Data Center Energy Infrastructure

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Lithium demand continues expanding through EVs, energy storage systems and grid infrastructure, but midstream overcapacity estimated above 30% and continued downstream destocking still dominate near-term pricing.</li>
<li>Chinese conversion overcapacity, converter utilisation rates often remaining below c.60–70% alongside lithium carbonate prices near RMB70,000–80,000/t, continue suppressing sustainable lithium price recovery.</li>
<li>Sustainable tightening likely requires material supply closures, slower refining expansion, sustained inventory drawdowns and lithium prices holding above marginal cost levels near USD700–800/t spodumene equivalent.</li>
</ul>


Lithium demand continues expanding through EVs, energy storage systems and grid infrastructure, but midstream overcapacity estimated above 30% and continued downstream destocking still dominate near-term pricing.
Chinese conversion overcapacity, converter utilisation rates often remaining below c.60–70% alongside lithium carbonate prices near RMB70,000–80,000/t, continue suppressing sustainable lithium price recovery.
Sustainable tightening likely requires material supply closures, slower refining expansion, sustained inventory drawdowns and lithium prices holding above marginal cost levels near USD700–800/t spodumene equivalent.


Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

Lithium Oversupply Still Dominates Despite Electrification Growth