HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) (600129 CH) - Investors Are Betting on the Merger with China TCM

Pre-IPO Jiangxi Institute of Biological Products-Concerns Behind the Strong Growth and Profitability

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.</li>
<li>When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.</li>
<li>Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.</li>
</ul>


Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.
When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.
Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences