Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

ASX200 Index Rebalance: Redbubble to Replace Coca Cola Amatil; More Changes in June

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>After Australia's largest non-alcoholic beverage bottler <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-amatil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:675:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)</a> announced an indicative proposal of A$12.75/share from Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP) on the <a href="https://ccaauauesprdrsg057str001.blob.core.windows.net/media/media/ccamatil/ccamatilau/files/asx/2020/201026_ccepindicativeproposalandamatiltradingupdate.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26 October</a>,  reports subsequently <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/coca-cola-amatil-takeover-delayed-as-investors-call-for-higher-bid-20210125-p56wqp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surfaced</a> that some major shareholders considered the proposal inadequate. CCL closed at or above terms for 48 consecutive days prior to the latest development.</p>
<p>Yesterday morning, CCEP and CCL <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02340945-2A1280279?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into</a> Scheme Implementation Deed at A$13.50/share, a 5.9% bump to the firm Offer on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02304483-2A1261358?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">4 November</a>, and a  25.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</p>
<p>The Offer has been declared best and final. The price will be adjusted for any final 2H20 dividends declared and paid prior to the implementation of any Scheme.</p>
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<p>A$13.50/share backs out a 12.2x/13.8x FY19/FY20E EV/EBITDA, which compares to CCL's five-year average of 9.5x/9.7x.</p>
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<p>Optically, the offer price is a multi-year high. However, this is only a 4.8% premium to the pre-COVID drop-off.</p>
<p>Terms appear fair. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:979:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Co (KO US)</a> (TCCC) owns 30.807% of Amatil and 19% of CCEP. This alliance effectively rules out a third-party challenger.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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After Australia's largest non-alcoholic beverage bottler Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) announced an indicative proposal of A$12.75/share from Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP) on the 26 October,  reports subsequently surfaced that some major shareholders considered the proposal inadequate. CCL closed at or above terms for 48 consecutive days prior to the latest development.
Yesterday morning, CCEP and CCL entered into Scheme Implementation Deed at A$13.50/share, a 5.9% bump to the firm Offer on the 4 November, and a  25.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Offer has been declared best and final. The price will be adjusted for any final 2H20 dividends declared and paid prior to the implementation of any Scheme.

A$13.50/share backs out a 12.2x/13.8x FY19/FY20E EV/EBITDA, which compares to CCL's five-year average of 9.5x/9.7x.


Optically, the offer price is a multi-year high. However, this is only a 4.8% premium to the pre-COVID drop-off.
Terms appear fair. Coca Cola Co (KO US) (TCCC) owns 30.807% of Amatil and 19% of CCEP. This alliance effectively rules out a third-party challenger.



As always, more below the fold.


Coca Cola Amatil: CCEP's Best & Final Offer