HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

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COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a> has a significant 91.5% rally YTD. However, the market seems to have assumed that the current elevated VLCC rate is sustainable, and we doubt it.</li>
<li>Despite the attack on Iran and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, history has taught us that such an outrageous rate level will normalise within a couple of months.  </li>
<li>Its 2x P/B is 4SD higher than the average since FY22. To justify it, the FY26 net profit needs to be 4.4x above the consensus - this is not possible. </li>
</ul>



Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK) has a significant 91.5% rally YTD. However, the market seems to have assumed that the current elevated VLCC rate is sustainable, and we doubt it.
Despite the attack on Iran and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, history has taught us that such an outrageous rate level will normalise within a couple of months.  
Its 2x P/B is 4SD higher than the average since FY22. To justify it, the FY26 net profit needs to be 4.4x above the consensus - this is not possible. 


COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transpor (600026 CH)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Is It Too Stretched?